Oil prices: between geopolitical tensions and global growth

Oil price forecasts

The oil market is closely tied to global demand, which is influenced by worldwide economic growth. According to a study by the Unimpresa Research Center, if economic recovery remains weak, the oil price may stabilize between $70 and $75 for WTI and between $75 and $80 for Brent. However, the implementation of fiscal or monetary stimuli by countries like China and the United States could lead to a slight increase, with Brent potentially reaching $85.

Geopolitical tensions and price impact

Geopolitical tensions, such as those linked to the conflict in Ukraine and recent hostilities between Israel and Palestine, could heavily influence oil price trends. If the conflict in Ukraine or the Middle East escalates, we could see Brent surpass $90 per barrel and WTI approach $85.

Global demand and uncertain economic growth

Weak economic growth in key countries such as China and the United States is slowing global oil demand. The economic measures taken by Beijing, for example, do not seem sufficient to stimulate significant recovery, while in the United States, GDP growth may fall below expectations. In Europe, the restrictive monetary policies of the ECB are also dampening oil demand.

The importance of economic and political stability

Unimpresa analysts emphasize that oil prices will mainly depend on the evolution of global demand and geopolitical developments. Investors will need to closely monitor economic policies and ongoing conflicts, as these factors will determine price trends in the near future.