The risk of corrective measures in 2025: the hazard of anticipated liquidity from banks

The proposal for anticipated liquidity from banks

The government’s idea to request a contribution from banks in the form of liquidity, by advancing tax payments related to deferred tax assets (DTA), raises concerns about the possibility of a corrective financial maneuver in 2025. Despite short-term benefits, this plan could reduce future tax revenues, putting significant pressure on public finances. If tax collections remain stagnant or slow down, the Italian government’s ability to maintain its financial commitments could be jeopardized.

A risky strategy based on hopeful projections

According to the Unimpresa Research Center, the plan to anticipate liquidity from banks is a risky strategy based more on hope than reliable estimates. The danger lies in the fact that banks’ tax advances immediately become a substantial tax credit, potentially reducing future revenues and leaving the government with fewer financial resources. Giuseppe Spadafora, Vice President of Unimpresa, emphasizes the need for concrete contributions from the banking sector, while warning against symbolic measures that might have adverse long-term effects.

Italy’s economic challenges

Italy is currently facing significant economic challenges, with a public debt of over €3 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 140%. In such a scenario, fiscal decisions must be carefully evaluated to avoid triggering a negative spiral that could undermine the country’s stability. With GDP growth forecast at around 1% in 2025, there is little room for expansionary measures without substantial risk, particularly in light of the global rise in interest rates.

The need for prudent fiscal management

Excessive public spending, if not properly financed, could undermine market confidence, increasing debt costs and limiting the state’s ability to act in future crises. Fiscal policies should aim for long-term stability, rather than chasing short-term gains that could result in a deterioration of Italy’s macroeconomic conditions. Pro-cyclical policies, such as increasing spending during periods of growth or cutting taxes without adequate coverage, may only amplify economic instability.